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25 March 2008

Being satisfied without being bad


Recently, I asked my wife if she would like another mojito, a delicious Cuban cocktail made of rum and limes. She replied to me: "I'm good." She meant, "No, thanks. I'm satisfied"; or, "No thanks. I'm effectively full." She did not mean to suggest that she is a decent person, or a well-behaved person, or even that she is in fine condition. (see below). Admittedly the odds favored my wife and many others using this perfectly useful word according to Project Gutenberg, (ranked number 98), yet, we are hopeful, under conditions other than rejecting a delicious cocktail.

Grammatically, when one says (as many today do say) "I'm good," they are literally arrogating to themselves high compliments of decency, being well-behaved, being moral, enjoyable, healthful (that is, good for your health...), even if their intent is an idiomatic "No thank you." My wife is certainly all of the virtues ascribed to "good," a fact that has well-complemented our partnership and my affection for her, but really, to reject a perfectly good drink while arrogating to yourself the virtues of "good," is not seemly, even if an accepted idiom.

I (subject) am (linking verb) good. (predicate adjective).

good:
adj. excellent; pleasant; pleasurable; decent; valid; well-behaved; in fine condition, useful, healthful, beneficial, competent, skilled; positive; having admirable moral values

While we understand the idiomatic intent of my wife's response, some idioms I will not abide. "I'm good" is one such idiom. How about the simple: "I'm satisfied," or "I'm content." Literal meanings are not always to be avoided. The point: Do not use idioms as a shorthand always when a literal response will suffice. Sometimes, literalness is good. That is: useful and beneficial.



18 March 2008

Kevin Love's "future" according to ESPN


An ESPN (sports network) group recently made predictions on which teams will fare best in the NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) basketball tournament being conducted this third week of March, 2008, in what has been called "March Madness." As winter begins to thaw, the most ardent of basketball fans become extremely animated. Although experts act with even-handed detachment, in their enthusiasm they can botch the arrangement of their verb tenses when more than one action occurs in one sentence. One such expert on an ESPN television broadcast boldly stated:

"If UCLA wins the NCAA championship, which I predicted they would, Kevin Love will be a big factor." Another way of saying the first part could be: "If UCLA will win the NCAA championship..." in which the verb is in the simple future tense. Either way, the expert was in safe verb territory until he came to the third clause.

The expert should have said: "If UCLA wins the NCAA championship, which I predicted they would, Kevin Love will have been a big factor."

First, Kevin Love proved out as a "big factor" in the prediction of UCLA's achievement, then, because of Love's predicted achievement, UCLA emerges the champion.

The action that occurs first is put in the future perfect (or future perfect passive as is here the case).

"sequence of tenses" indicates "the logical relationship of time as expressed by tense to other words, especially to other verbs, in an expression. (Harper's English Grammar). Another way of looking at tense sequence is to understand the relationship of two clauses working with one another to establish some relationship in a sequence of time: "The dependence of the tense of a subordinate verb on the tense of the verb in the main clause." (The Concise Oxford Dictionary). The main clause states that UCLA wins (will win) "depending upon" Kevin Love first playing a large role in the rounds of the tournament leading up to and including the championship game.

Sequence counts both on the court and in grammatical syntax.

11 March 2008

The semantics of "Recession"

From the Desk of Guy Geldworth:

Note: Guy Geldworth, who holds a CFA, will occasionally collaborate with this blogger on matters concerning the market and economy. Guy will treat the technical part; I will weigh in on the language part--mostly semantics: "the study of the meaning and use of words and phrases, the form rather than the structure, Concise Oxford Dictionary.

Jack Sands: There has been much discussion lately of recession. The "R" word reemerges from time-to-time because markets, after all, are subjected to cycles.

Guy Geldworth: I prefer the word "uncertainty," but will speak to the word you used. By definition, a recession consists of "two back-to-back quarters in which gross domestic product (GDP) declines year-over-year."
That's two back-to-back quarters of negative growth, but this is considered a "lagging measure," which is a blunt instrument, in my opinion. Since the early 19th century, there have been roughly six recessions and three depressions. You can also determine what a recession looks like by measuring real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. (Wikipedia).

Jack: So, gauging a recession seems to bear (bad pun) on determining whether certain conditions are met measured by numbers, and if met, when the conditions began and seem to be subsiding.

Guy: Yes. To get a sharper picture of those conditions it's necessary to look at more recent market history since today's economies operate in a much more complex world. Let's look at the market since the mid part of the last century. Since 1960 there have been twelve bear markets, seven of which occurred during a recession. Bear market: "a market that has dropped at least 20% by major indexes from recent highs" (Los Angeles Times); "a market that is accompanied by widespread pessimism. Investors anticipate further losses and are motivated to sell. A bear market is one in which negative sentiment feeds on itself in a vicious circle. The most famous bear market occurred after the 1929 stock market crash and lasted two years." (Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).

Jack: Besides the numbers, Bear markets seem to deal a lot with sentiment, that is, a feeling of things going bad.

Guy: Yes, if enough people feel bad enough, they will begin acting as though there is a recession (by selling off their equities) which then may assure one.

Jack: Hate to be thick, but it brings me back to our question: What is a recession? It seems to built by both numbers and emotion.

Guy: That's my point. I'll repeat: a recession consists of two back-to-back quarters of negative growth, and let me emphasize often influenced by negative sentiment in a period of uncertainty. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. But let me continue with the "recent history." Of the seven bear markets that occurred in a recession, the average length of the recession was eleven months. During those eleven months, the average number of months it took the market to hit the trough (its low point) was seven months. The drawdown period from peak to trough (gauged by market charts and technical analysis) during that period was 23.4 months. (
Drawdown: "the measure of the decline from a historical peak in some variable; unrealized losses) Concise Oxford Dictionary.

Jack: Depending upon your positions, if you had some idea about this history, the market "rhythms," of recessions and bear markets, you might be able to ride it out without panicking and selling, at least your good positions.

Guy: Now we're getting to the punch line with respect to what's happening presently. An important current fact: the "final number" is not in for
Q4 , 2007 (a measure of fiscal fourth quarter growth or lack thereof in the economy. Fourth quarter: November, December, January, 2007). We could be negative right now, but let me emphasize, of the six recessions I referred to earlier, only twelve percent experienced a downturn. (a downturn can be considered to be a consequence of an expansion reaching an unsustainable state, that is corrected by a brief decline). So we may ask, how bad is a "recession" by definition as compared to a non recession? How bad is a downturn, given that downturns are brief?

Jack:
OK, now you're talking about the semantics of it all.

Guy: Without meaning to bore you, it's important to further note that the five bear markets that have occurred since 1960 took place in a
non recessionary period.

Jack: A lot of negative sentiment.

Guy: Precisely, and the average number of months of the market decline was seven months. The
drawdown during that decline, unrealized losses if you didn't sell, was 21%. Pretty scary, especially if you're not familiar with market history and its rhythms. Incidentally, the number of months to recovery from the trough was thirteen months.

Jack: So, if you could hang on, and you sold the dogs, you'd begin to see your balance sheet returning to normal.

Guy: Even advancing if you got in early enough, if your timing was right.

Jack: Still, is it a sign of weakness to go to cash in these environments, or to investments other than pure equities?

Guy: Certainly not. Always have some cash, 10, 15, 20% based upon your age and risk tolerance. We can get to that. The important point here is that if you look at things like sentiment indexes such as the
ISE sentiment index, smart money starts working when the index hits historical lows.

Jack: The opposite of what a lot of folks believe. So, we should see higher equity prices by year's end?

Guy: Depends upon your sentiment, and sentiment, in my opinion, should depend upon your reading of fundamental and technical data of companies and economies. Again, if we are negative right now or have been according to our recession formula, and the
Fed (Federal Reserve System, the Central Bank of the United States governed by the Open Market Committee) doesn't get over involved, then yes, we should see higher prices for equities. I believe the Fed should hold tight with lowering rates until the next meeting because, although the weak dollar serves some but not all in overseas trade, it dampens the domestic environment, particularly oil which is priced in dollars. It's a domino effect, a weak dollar causes further weak sentiment, further tightening of the credit markets, and on and on.

Jack: So what does a person do in this period of "uncertainty"?

Guy: If I had to make not one, but two points, number one would be: in our current situation, use the word "uncertainty," not "recession," and operate from that "semantic" vantage point in charting your asset allocation and diversification course of action. And while charting that course, my second point: use
non correlated measures. (Correlation does not imply causation, that is, correlation between two variables does not imply that one causes the other. Correlation is a logical fallacy that implies that two events that occur together are claimed to have a cause-and-effect relationship. (In Latin: cum hoc ergo propter hoc, or, post hoc ergo propter hoc). If you use a broker or financial consultant, ask what informs their portfolio constructions. If they use a lot of correlations, I'd say find another individual or firm.

Jack: You make correlated measure sound like a kind of
voo doo.

Guy: You're not going to get me caught up with that.

Jack: Until the next time, then.


For a further look into the semantics of "Recession"see: "UCLA Experts Don't Buy Recession"

and, "Will the R-Word incite the bears?"

07 March 2008

Laura Bush speaks out on value of reading


Quotes from the First Lady:

Books have been "my greatest love affair."

I worry that many have never heard of The Brothers Karamazov, and an "intriguing man named Gatsby."

The passion for reading "is a learned behavior" that should be taught at home and at schools."

"A nation that does not read for itself cannot think for itself, and a nation that cannot think for itself risks losing both its identity and its freedom...."

All we can say is that the truth will out, even from the unlikliest of places. Question is, is anyone listening any longer with credulity to the utterances coming out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue?

06 March 2008

The elephant in the room, plagiarism in America

Tu nihil invita dices faciesve Minerva, translation: "You will get nothing written or created unless Minerva helps." Horace 65-8 B.C.

While the Roman goddess of wisdom and patroness of the arts might have helped Horace and his peers in ancient Rome, praying to the goddess in our own time to produce an essay or paper certainly won't work. Actually, Horace might have been waxing poetic, something he did quite well in his Odes, for he had been practically educated by the "best Roman grammarian" as a young man, after which he enrolled in the University of Athens. William Rose Benét, The Reader's Encyclopedia.

Thus, Horace did not actually require the aid of Minerva but learned the art of writing painstakingly resulting in his practicing it artfully. The name "Horace" put after Horace's writing meant that Horace actually wrote the piece, a fact that comforts us if we read his writing. Yet you don't have to be Horace to provide this comfort, this may be said of anyone who writes.

Modern student writers might not have Minerva to turn to, but rather, the Internet, and it is not for inspiration but for the practice of plagiarism. Put in the key words "essay writing help," and you will find ingenuous parties willing to teach the art of writing. Put in "Moby Dick essay help," or "Moby Dick paper help," or "Death of a Salesman essay help," etc. and you will find plenty of services willing to either sell you a paper or compose one for you. An example promotion from such an on-line service follows:

"Over 40,000 of our high-quality term papers, essays, book reports, course works, and research papers are available for SAME-DAY, email delivery at only $39.99 each—regardless of length! To place an order, please use our...." and more,

"Our premium search engine enables you to browse thousands of unique term papers, essay topics, reviews, book reports, research papers, and Moby Dick coursework essays that are NOT available through our $39.99 service."

We assume the service adds this latter information to indicate that it is leading the purchaser to "helpful resources." Perhaps, but also leading to resources which one may conveniently plagiarize, and why should not the student be trained to accomplish this feat on his/her own? The essay service quoted above offers a link to a website attempting to legitimately confront the problem of plagiarism called Essayfraud.org. Yet, one need not be a cynic to view this linking by the essay service as a self-serving ploy for credibility.

At a time in the United States when "math & science" mastery is urged, we should not forget mastery of the language in written and oral form. Is linguistic literacy equally important to math & science numeracy? We argue a firm "Yes," and add rhetorically, what are the qualities we desire in citizens living in a market economy and political democracy? We may add with emphasis, what are requisite qualities of worthy "citizen/consumers?"

Recently, one of the better private schools in Los Angeles experienced a cheating scandal resulting in the expulsion or suspension of students who had stolen a test. Observed the headmaster of the school, "I've been at the school for 21 years, and I have never heard of an exam or test being stolen." One wonders how many headmasters, principals, classroom instructors, or parents realize how many papers are not written by students but plagiarized. Here, we are not referring to those students who work earnestly with their teachers or tutors as apprentices learning an art, but rather those who simply order their paper off the Internet. This is the "elephant in the room" no one speaks of.

The Josephson Institute of Ethics in Los Angeles revealed in a recent survey that "young people display deeply entrenched habits of dishonesty." Additionally, the "2006 Report Card on the Ethics of American Youth" (a survey conducted every two years) found high rates of cheating, lying, and theft...(and that) 60% of students said they had cheated on a test, and one in three used the Internet to plagiarize an assignment" (emphasis mine), (Carla Rivera, Los Angeles Times).

Post Script:
Recently, we learn in a headline: "Bush aide quits over plagiarism" James Gerstenzang, Los Angeles Times). Sub headline: "White House liaison to conservative groups admitted lifting material for newspaper columns he wrote." This individual, who wound up in the highest level of federal government, undoubtedly was one of the three who cheated earlier on in his "education." Oddly, one of his essays included the plagiarized words: "The goal of education is to form the citizen." "The citizen" indicating an ethical person who makes wise decisions.

To return to Horace, it was said of him that "his personality was always evident" in his writing. What are we to think of those "one-in-three" who cheat. What is their personality? What do they really think? Do educators believe they are "forming" two out of three ethical "citizens"? If so, is 66% a worthy goal?

While skipping the Latin, we end with Horace: "You will have written exceptionally well if, by skilful arrangement of your words, you have made an ordinary one (piece of writing) seem original." We may add, the skill having been learned by the writer of the original piece as well as the earnest apprentice. Horace would flinch at skilful copying. Attributing proper recognition to those who originate intellectual materials is a seemly approach toward cultivating good citizens from every crop of students. Citizens, who in turn, help formulate decent cultures.

03 March 2008

William F. Buckley, "requiescat in pace"

While I might have disagreed with most of Mr. Buckley's political attitudes, he contributed early on to my interest in language by his own, obvious enthusiasm for it. I will separate his right-leaning stance from his love of language and the work ethic which built his words into ideas, and his ideas into many volumes. He died in his study, presumably at work.

Some bits to remember him by--

On Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand: "One thousand pages of ideological fabulism; I had to flog myself to read it."

On finding fault with God and Man at Yale, Buckley's first major success, "As you grow older, you become more exacting with respect to your own performances."

On being told by a fellow sailor that the sailor "liked being his mate." Buckley corrected the man, "You are my first mate. I have a mate. Her name is Pat."

Pat Buckley was Buckley's wife. She predeceased him less than a year ago.

Vertigo in the Hospital Waiting Room


While in the waiting room of the emergency wing of a local hospital in Burbank, California, the following notice was posted for all to read and attempt to decipher:


"The patient has the right to be advised as to be advised as to the reason for the presence of any individual."

Parsed, the sentence looks like this:

The patient (noun, subject) has (verb, transitive) the right (noun, direct object) to be advised (infinitive in passive voice acting as a a noun (object complement complementing "the right"); it is also a verbal: a verbal is a word derived from a verb and is generally used as a noun or as an adjective) as (conjunction, "scope, opportunity")
to be advised (verbal adjective modifying the verbal noun "to be advised") as to (prepositional phrase "concerning") the reason (object of preposition--the whole phrase "as to the reason" acts as an adjective modifying the first "to be advised," a verbal noun) for the presence (prepositional phrase used as an adjective modifying "reason") of any individual. (prepositional phrase used as an adjective modifying "individual")

We may ask: What is the purpose of not one, but two phrases stating "to be advised," which seem be redundant. The explanation seems to be that the first use of "to be advised" means the right to be notified of the right to be advised or counseled ( the second use) concerning any questions or doubts patients may have (while being examined) of the identity or legitimacy of a "stranger" in their midst, an individual who may be doubted to possess the proper legal or medical credentials to be in the patient's presence while being examined.

Postscript: the notice, in small print and posted in a small frame, hung obscurely on a wall post near the admittance desk. No one but the author read the notice in nearly two hours of waiting to enter a room where one might have the need to enquire about the presence of any individual one might feel should not be present.


The notice was clearly legalese: "Dense, pedantic verbiage in a...text that seems designed to obfuscate and requires a lawyer to parse it. Concise Oxford Dictionary.

The notice served to protect the hospital, then the patient, in that order. Such would appear to be state of health care in the United States, although, once in attendance, the physician and staff proved caring and professionally capable.







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